Climate Money Work: The Corporate & Risk Operations Brief

Behind the Numbers: Government Shutdown Impact; Sugar Supply Risk; Core PCE

February 19, 2026

CMW: The Corporate & Risk Operations Brief delivers weekly insight on how market shifts, operational decisions, and policy signals translate into real-world risk and execution pressure for corporate leaders.

CMW: The Corporate & Risk Operations Brief  is built for leaders navigating risk in real time.

Behind the Numbers: Government Shutdown Impact

by CMW: The Corporate & Risk Operations Brief Contributor

What’s happening

A partial shutdown has entered its first week amid negotiations between Senate Democrats and the White House. While frontline operations remain active across border security, transportation screening, and cybersecurity, the strain on staffing and funding creates uneven operational risk across agencies.

Of the nearly 272,000 employees at the Department of Homeland Security, roughly 92% are deemed essential and must continue working without pay — a figure that could decline if prolonged funding uncertainty drives absenteeism. Additionally, agencies including the Transportation Security Administration and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency face operational strain, delayed initiatives, and workforce fatigue.

Why it matters

We know from fall 2025, shutdowns create immediate uncertainty. Permitting, inspections, product approvals, customs processing, and regulatory reviews risk delay. Border and port slowdowns can disrupt inbound materials and outbound shipments. Cybersecurity coordination may also weaken if federal cyber resources are constrained, elevating operational and IP risk.

 

What’s the risk exposure

Manufacturers with complex global supply chains, federal contracts, infrastructure dependencies, or time-sensitive certifications face heightened exposure. Cash flow risk may rise if shipment delays stretch working capital cycles. Prolonged shutdowns historically compound economic drag, with broader spillovers into logistics, transportation, and workforce stability.

 

What to watch next

Monitor congressional negotiations, workforce attrition at security and transportation agencies, port and border processing times, and updates on federal inspections or rulemaking timelines. The longer the shutdown persists, the greater the likelihood of supply chain backlogs and elevated operational risk across the manufacturing sector.

Key Risks & Considerations

Risk Area

What to Watch

Why It Matters

Border & Customs Disruptions

Processing times at ports of entry; inspection backlogs at Customs and Border Protection; freight dwell times

Delays in inbound raw materials and outbound finished goods can interrupt production schedules, increase inventory costs, and strain customer commitments.

Regulatory & Permitting Delays

Slowdown in federal permitting, product approvals, facility inspections, and environmental reviews

Deferred approvals can stall plant expansions, product launches, and capital investments, impacting revenue forecasts and growth plans.

Transportation Security Strain

Staffing levels and absenteeism at Transportation Security Administration; cargo screening delays

Air cargo and business travel disruptions may slow high-value or time-sensitive shipments and complicate supplier coordination.

Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities

Operational capacity and guidance updates from Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency

Reduced federal cyber support may heighten exposure to ransomware, IP theft, and operational technology (OT) system threats.

Federal Contract & Payment Risk

Timing of contract approvals, renewals, and agency payments within the Department of Homeland Security

Manufacturers supplying federal agencies could face delayed payments or paused procurement activity, tightening cash flow.

Sources

Sugar Supply Tightens: Rising Input Cost and Sourcing Risks for Operations Leaders

by CMW: The Corporate & Risk Operations Brief Contributor

Global sugar markets are tightening as weaker-than-expected output in India pressures near-term supply. Disease-related crop damage in key growing regions could reduce Indian production below earlier forecasts, while lower volumes from Thailand and potential shortages in Pakistan add to constraints. White sugar futures have already risen this month, reflecting stronger demand and limited refined supply.

For operations and risk professionals, the exposure is twofold: input cost volatility and supply continuity risk. Food, beverage, and consumer goods manufacturers should reassess hedging strategies, supplier diversification, and inventory buffers, particularly as export flows may depend on sustained higher global pricing.

Sources

Why Friday’s Core PCE Matters 

by CMW: The Corporate & Risk Operations Brief Contributor

Friday’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — is a pivotal test for markets and policymakers. Delayed by last year’s shutdown, the December data arrives alongside fourth-quarter GDP, offering a consolidated snapshot of whether inflation is cooling or re-accelerating.

After three rate cuts in late 2025, the Fed paused in January at 3.50%–3.75%, awaiting clearer signals. If Core PCE shows renewed price pressure, expectations for near-term rate cuts could fade, pushing easing into the second half of 2026. A softer reading, however, would reinforce a “soft landing” narrative.

For risk and finance leaders, the print will shape borrowing costs, capital allocation, pricing strategy, and market volatility heading into the March policy meeting.

Sources

Executive Quote

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“Travelers and the U.S. economy cannot afford to have essential TSA personnel working without pay, which increases the risk of unscheduled absences and call outs, and ultimately can lead to higher wait times and missed or delayed flights,” – Airlines for America, U.S. Travel and American Hotel & Lodging Association in a joint statement

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